Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index inches up

DETROIT—Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in June to a level of 107.2, up from a revised reading of 106.8 in May.

The index consists of nine variables—nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, a house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy, and sales tax revenue.

In June, four of the nine variables improved for the month: house prices, industrial electricity demand, hotel occupancy, and state sales tax revenue. Four indicators fell: jobless claims, housing starts, light vehicle production, and total state trade. Nonfarm employment was unchanged for the month.

Comerica economic observers said the global semiconductor shortsage continues to weigh on auto production, in part due to a renewed COVID-19 outbreak in southeast Asia. They said they expect supply chain disruptions to get gradually better in the fall, but not disappear. They also said the current fourth wave of COVID-19 in the United States is pushing back expectations for a resumption of normal activity in consumer and business activity this fall.

June’s reading was 24.9 percent higher than the historical low of 85.8 reached in during the pandemic-related economic crash June 2020. The index averaged 100 points for all of 2020, 9.0 points below the index average for 2019.

To subscribe to Comerica Bank economic publications or for questions, email ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at www.comerica.com/insights.

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