Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index climbs

DETROIT–Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in December to a level of 108.6.

The index is comprised of nine variables: unemployment insurance claims, housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, lightvehicle production, state sales tax revenues, nonfarm payrolls, total state trade, and hotel occupancy.

In December, six of the variables were positive: jobless claims, housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, light vehicle production, and state sales tax revenue. The three decliners were nonfarm payrolls, total state trade, and hotel occupancy.

All data are seasonally adjusted, converted to constant dollar figures and expressed as a three month moving average.

Comerica economists said they’re seeing a growing split between manufacturing, which is strengthening nationally, and the services sector, which isn’t, mostly due to continued restrictions on many services to slow the spread of the pandemic. They also expect a slowdown in auto production in the months ahead due to the global computer chip shortage.

December’s reading was 25 percent higher than the historical low reached in June 2020.

To subscribe to Comerica economic publications or for questions, email ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at http://www.comerica.com/insights.

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