Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index ticks down

DETROIT—ComericaBank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index declined in November to a level of 117.4 from 117.8 in October, as the settlement of the GM-UAW strike in October did little to boost the state’s economy.

The index is comprised of nine variables: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. Comerica officials said just three index components were positive for the month: house prices, auto assemblies, and hotel occupancy. Meanwhile, five components turned negative for the month: unemployment insurance claims, housing starts, industrial electricity demand, total state trade, and state sales tax revenue.

Comerica officials said signs point to a continued slowdown in the manufacturing sector.

For the index, all data are seasonally adjusted and converted to constant-dollar values. The index is also expressed as a three-month moving average.

November’s reading is 20 points, or 20 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9, reached at the bottom of the last recession in 2007-09. The index averaged 118.6 points for all of 2018, 0.3 points above the index average for 2017.

To subscribe to Comerica economic publications or for questions, email ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at http://www.comerica.com/insights.

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