Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index slips again

DETROIT — The Michigan Economic Activity Index compiled by Comerica Bank fell again in July, to a level of 118.4, from 118.8 in June.

Only two out of nine index components were positive in July, bank officials said, blaming uncertainty about the Trump admniistration’s trade wars and the passing of the auto industry’s most recent cyclical peak. They were non-farm employment and industrial electric demand. All other components — unemployment insurance claims, housing starts, house prices, vehicle production, total state trade, hotel occupancy, and state sales tax revenue — declined.

Bank officials said the July index matches the value of Aprill 2017, and is just 0.5 percent ahead of July 2017, showing little forward momentum in the Michigan economy over the past year.

July’s reading is 21 points, or 21 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9, reached at the bottom of the last recession in 2007-09. The index averaged 118.2 points for all of 2017, one point above the index average for 2016.

All data in the index are seasonally adjusted, and nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values.

To subscribe to Comerica economic publications or for questions, email ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at www.comerica.com/insights.

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