Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Climbs

DETROIT — Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index increased 1.9 percentage points in June to a level of 129.8, up from 127.9 in May.

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, sales tax revenues, home prices, and auto production.

“The index is on an upward trajectory so far in 2016, but it has been somewhat inconsistent, not showing back-to-back gains since mid-year 2015,” said Robert Dye, Comerica chief economist. “Six subcomponents were positive in June, including state exports, initial claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, auto production, sales tax revenues and hotel occupancy. House prices eased while nonfarm employment was unchanged. U.S. auto sales surged in July to a 17.9 million unit sales rate, but we expect sales to gradually ease from that strong pace, allowing U.S. auto production to ease as well.”

All data are seasonally adjusted, and indexed to the base year of 2008. Current dollar values are also converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

June’s reading is 56 points, or 75 percent, above the index cyclical low of 74.1, reached at the bottom of the last recession.

The index averaged 123.6 points for all of 2015, five and four-fifths points above the index average for 2014.

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